If something seems familiar about Tiger Woods' play through 36 holes of the 2012 Open Championship, you must have watched the first two rounds of last month's U.S. Open.
Tiger shared the halfway lead at the Olympic Club after two days of methodical golf, hitting a variety of irons and fairway woods from the tees and quarantining his driver like it was infected with a flesh-eating virus. Fast forward to Royal Lytham & St. Anne's, where Woods is again content to lay back, avoid trouble and sacrifice potential birdie opps for guaranteed pars. He's hit driver just three times in 28 chances, mixing in a 3-wood here and there but mostly sticking with his trusty long-iron stinger.
Ironically, Woods' conservative strategy may be quite a gamble.
Woods heads into the weekend alone in third place, four behind leader Brandt Snedeker and three back of Adam Scott. But he's conceded each of them four shots on Lytham's two par 5s; Tiger is even par on those holes, Snedeker and Scott both -4.
I have a hunch Tiger will again play it safe on Saturday, with a goal of keeping in contact with the leaders while banking on tougher conditions Sunday. The forecast calls for the wind to finally kick up, which would seem to play right into Woods' hands.
With 36 holes remaining, give me Tiger to win. I don't see a repeat of his sloppy weekend play at Olympic. But if he fails to keep pace with the safety-first approach, Woods may wish he'd exercised a little less caution -- and discipline.
